Corrales, New Mexico: Care Maps, Inc., today announced the “Covid 19 Herd Immunity Calculator”, a web-based interactive tool, to monitor vaccinations and the status of herd immunity in multiple states.
Contrary to popular opinion, the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Covid 19 data shows that the threshold for Herd immunity is not 75% vaccination. Care Maps calculator shows that 44 states have reached threshold for Herd immunity as of April 28, 2021. Since none of them are even close to the 75% vaccination limit, they are unaware of having reached this goal. Meanwhile, high schoolers can use the link below to access the Herd immunity calculator and spread the good news to adults.
The basis for the calculator is the discovery of an exact solution to the 94 year-old SIR model by a New Mexico scientist, Dr. Jacob Kuriyan. This solution predicts the onset of Herd immunity when just 25% of the population is immunized through recovery or vaccination or a combination. “The model equations were difficult to solve and only approximate solutions were available. And so, the relationship of Herd immunity onset to vaccinations remained hidden,” said Dr. Kuriyan.
The onset of Herd immunity is precisely when the size of the epidemic begins to decrease, when the numbers who recover exceed the new cases and it is an easy formula to calculate using daily values of published by JHU. To view the results, here’s the link to the Herd immunity map.
Herd immunity is not the flash of lightning that will signal the end of the pandemic. It is more a process, a start of the journey. But it is a good metric to track progress, as societal rules change and as more get vaccinated. And the Herd immunity calculator is a simple tool to keep everyone informed, as we work towards ending the pandemic.
Many critical issues remain and here are a few.
The states that reached the threshold of Herd immunity, still have large pools of infected people remaining; without adequate safety measures, the pandemic can easily revive, especially amongst the unvaccinated. “Infections progress geometrically, in leaps, while recoveries move arithmetically, in small steps”, said Dr. Kuriyan. And India’s second surge is a reminder to not let the guard down while mitigating their transmissions.
The refuseniks will continue to pose a threat of resurgence and add to our costs. Perhaps insurers will bail us out by slapping a copay for the unvaccinated who seek treatment. As Charles Colson once observed, when you grab them by their wallet, “their hearts and minds will follow.”
We need sound policies that will balance the responsibility of the state with its residents. Reopening the economy in phases is fine. But if spikes in infections occur, restrictions must be reinstated – according to proven formulae.
The rush to reopen schools is based on assuming that Covid 19 is mainly an adult disease. The variants in India suggest that younger folks are no longer exempt. We should rather err on the side of caution, as the head of CDC, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, has urged, and have a plan to react rapidly, should the variants appear in the US.
The paper with the details of the calculation has not been peer reviewed. It can be read here:
Physmark, Inc., a healthcare software company, used its patented chronic population model to develop CareMaps. Care Maps, Inc. has the exclusive rights to market CareMaps. Both companies are based in Corrales, New Mexico. ◄
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